Let’s do some maths, why companies need to take care about the Coronavirus

A very good blog post about the virus, coronavirus and some maths from the president of the first association of belgian doctors,Dr philippe devos, (FR) (1) explains why we may have a pandemia ahead that will strike the economy and this advices – which are not alarmist by the way – have to be followed by everyone .

At ThirdBrain during 7 years and still now we are producing software which forecast future for the economy market and we studied a lot of software in the same area including virus spreading ones, climates ones etc…

For the Virus , it’s very very very simple.

The spread of a virus is computed by the “R0 parameter”.

The R0 represents how many people will catch the virus if we place one people “ill” with 100 people around

The classic flue is 1.3

Coronavirus is 2.2

Rubella is 6 – is killing now a lot of children in the worst epiedemia known in the last decades in africa.

The average time to catch the coronavirus may be about 6 days

Then if during this 6 days one people ill “cross” (up to 2 meters you can catch it), 100 people every day in his suburb train, you have easily a massive expansion of the virus by the simple daily move of billions of people.

Imagine that one person ill contamine 2.2 others each day when this person is around 100 people etc…and that during 6 days before to stay at home.

One of the reason of the expansion is people moving – and moving for working is a large part of the everyday movement- then the remote work during this period is the only way to preserve your workforce and participate to the common effort to eradicate this virus.

Majority of services can be still be provided remotely, it’s only a question of choices.

Note this link to follow the (future) pandemia :

Daily count :

Click here

Live news not censured :

And this blog post which explain (sorry in French) what is the R0 parameter to forecast virus spread :


(2) Wiki-Health.