Who will move the BitCoin Market?
The 18 millionth Bitcoin was mined. That’s 85% of the total Bitcoin supply, which is limited to 21 million. The question is then now here : what will the price of BTC do in a near future ?
The crypto-currencies are based on a planned rarefaction : its means that there is a pre-planned limited number of coins which needs to be distribued.
More the number of coins is raising. more difficult mining is and at the end you won’t be able to produce one coin more.
When we know that only a minority is . perhaps, holding the majority of the coins like this study is suggesting , and we know for sure that 3 millions of BTC did not move at all since inception, we may think that only few player can really make the market.
The theorical question i have is the following one : some people “invented” the miners to help to push the message, basically to go the next block and write the transaction in the block and propagate it.
If you intend to build a blockchain by yourself, no matter of what blockchain, you need to push people or institution to host nodes and to run this nodes to propagate your message.
To be usefull, more this nodes are hosted by different people or institution, better it is because when you need to choose what will be in the next block, you have various algorythm which can simulate like a “vote” to elect what messages of what nodes will be added in the next chain.
If someone has a majority of the nodes, depending on the algorythm, this nodes may “dictate” what message will be registred in the next (block) chain and finally totally control the blockchain itself.
This theorical questions are the core of the blockchain dilemna and…weakness.
Then my question is :
who will move the blockchain when all BTC will be mined ?
Indeed, we know that reward is becoming less and less reachable by less and less people because difficulty raise.
At the end of the mining process, we will have still transactions fees which will push heavy “past-miners” to continue their jobs.
This heavy miners will be , by default, very small and could easily act in cartel mode raising the prices of transactions fees.
This raise of transactions fees will then “slow down” Bitcoin moves and finally perhaps kill the circulation itself.
Or the BTC will be kept as a currency for some hidden groups to exchanges services and act in a parallelle “grey” economy.
Classic bankers like to say that BTC’s price is manipulated by 10 or 50 ” whales “ but this opinion is not really backuped by serious study, even if new study suggest that one whale did the spike of 2017..
Then to resume BTC seems really to stay a “super-niche” and have great difficulty to spread outside the first circle of…finally early adopter of the BTC. The Spike we had up to 20’000 USD is still not really understable. The only effect of this spike was to push (young) people to buy BTC while they did not know a word about it a week before enlarging the group of future losers in the game
For the moment BTC seems to be used in weak economies and/or economy on the raise (Russia, Brazil, Turkey, China) to manage the great instability of the fiat currency of this countries. If the economy of this countries will do better , the interest of BTC could be also affected too.
Difficult question but perhaps #BTC will be the most giant scam ever or a real alternative to the poor currencies policies of the central bank giving back freedom to customers.
The existence of this question is a problem.
Money, by definition, is a question of trust.